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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/20 11:13

   Grains Trending Lower at Midday

   Broadly weaker grain trade at midday after early gains fade.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments

   The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 45 lower. The dollar 
index is 9 lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are weaker with 
crude down $0.40. Livestock trade is sharply higher. Precious metals are mixed 
with gold 1.20 higher.


   Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower at midday with initial overnight gains giving way 
to broad selling again as long liquidation continues with little fresh demand 
news to support action and no surprises on the crop tour. Weather should 
continue to remain a short-term non-issue as the crop tour moves through 
Nebraska and Indiana today. Ethanol margins remain poor with blenders seeing 
the most short-term benefits with ethanol futures drifting lower. Basis remains 
mixed overall with harvest getting closer. Weekly crop progress showed 
conditions 1% lower to 56% good to excellent, 14% poor to very poor, 95% silked 
vs. 99% on average, 55% in the dough vs. 76% average, and 15% dented vs 30% on 
average. On the September nearby chart support is likely the $3.59 low with the 
lower Bollinger Band at $3.54 below that with resistance the 10-day at $3.80, 
reflecting the break.


   Soybean trade is narrowly mixed with overnight strength fading on spillover 
pressure from the corn and wheat action. Meal is 1.00 to 2.00 higher and oil is 
20 to 30 points lower. Basis remains flat overall. The Brazilian ral gave up 
its recovery and remains near the bottom, along with the issues in Argentina. 
The weather looks to be a short-term non-issue for soybeans as well coming 
forward. The trade situation remains little changed as well. Weekly crop 
progress showed conditions 1% lower to 53% good to excellent, 14% poor to very 
poor, 90% blooming vs. 96% on average, and 68% setting pods vs. 85% on average. 
September chart support is the lower Bollinger Band at $8.42, with the next 
round up the 10-day $8.65.


   Wheat trade is 1 to 8 cents lower with selling again resuming during the day 
session. The Kansas City/Chicago spread is at 73 after a high of 90 cents last 
week. The corn/HRW spread is narrower, back to 25 cents. Kansas City wheat is 
now back to competitive on the world market trading as well as into feed 
rations. Spring wheat harvest should expand with winter wheat just about 
wrapped up, with Europe continuing to move towards spring wheat harvest as 
well. Weekly crop progress showed winter wheat 93% harvested vs. 98% on 
average, with spring wheat 16% harvested vs. 49% on average, and 70% good to 
excellent, and 7% poor to very poor, down 1%. The September Kansas City chart 
support is the new low at 3.80 3/4 with the first resistance the 10-day at 


   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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