DTN Midday Livestock Comments          01/16 11:42

   Traders Back Away From Resistance Pressure

   A few dressed cattle sales have been noted this morning at $322, which is 
$2.00 higher than last week's weighted average. 

ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst

GENERAL COMMENTS:

   It's a lower trending day for the entire livestock complex as all three of 
the markets are trading lower. Thursday's move seems to be more technically 
driven than it is fundamentally driven as pork cutout values are slightly 
higher and cash cattle prices are trading anywhere from steady to $2.00 higher. 
March corn is down 2 3/4 cents per bushel and March soybean meal is down $7.50. 
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 16.68 points.

   Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 9,700 mt for 2025 
were primarily for Japan (3,600 mt), China (3,500 mt) and South Korea. Pork net 
sales of 30,300 mt for 2025 were primarily for Mexico (11,700 mt), South Korea 
(5,000 mt) and South Korea (5,000 mt).

LIVE CATTLE:

   Upon rallying up to the market's resistance at $198.50, traders have quickly 
pulled the live cattle contracts back lower, although they're seeing support 
from stronger cash cattle prices this week. They're not confident that the 
market's current fundamental support is justifiably strong enough to break the 
resistance threshold. It's also worth mentioning that last week we saw a big 
jump in the CFTC data for non-commercial positions, which could be adding to 
some of the market's pressure as some profit taking could be taking place by 
traders. February live cattle are down $2.42 at $196.10, April live cattle are 
down $2.12 at $197.20 and June live cattle are down $1.57 at $191.90. There's 
been some more cash cattle sales reported this morning where dressed cattle are 
trading for $322 ($2.00 higher than last week's weighted average) and more live 
cattle trade is being noted at $201 which is steady/$1.00 higher than last 
week's weighted average. Asking prices for cattle left to trade are around $202 
in the South and $323 plus in the North.

   Boxed beef prices are mixed: choice down $0.95 ($333.19) and select up $1.05 
($319.09) with a movement of 58 loads (34.08 loads of choice, 13.73 loads of 
select, zero loads of trim and 10.49 loads of ground beef).

FEEDER CATTLE:

   With the live cattle complex ducking its head and running lower, the feeder 
cattle market didn't take long to change its position either. January feeders 
are down $2.00 at $273.22, March feeders are down $2.70 at $267.10 and April 
feeders are down $2.37 at $267.75. This is also a technical decision being 
made; it's not because of a lack of fundamental support in the countryside.

LEAN HOGS:

   Even with an encouraging report of export sales this morning, the lean hog 
complex is following the cattle contracts lower trend as its market is also 
trading slightly lower. Thankfully, pork cutout values are still slightly 
higher, which continues to be an encouraging demand factor that traders won't 
likely overlook. But today's pork cuts are a little more scattered across the 
board as the butt is up $4.56 and the loin is up $3.83, but the ham is down 
$3.03 and the belly is down $2.18. February lean hogs are down $0.90 at $82.22, 
April lean hogs are down $0.50 at $90.52 and June lean hogs are down $0.25 at 
$103.90.

   The projected lean hog index for 1/15/2025 is up $0.09 at $81.19, and the 
actual index for 1/14/2025 is up $0.11 at $81.10. Hog prices are higher on the 
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, up $0.72 with a weighted average price of 
$80.44, ranging from $71.00 to $81.00 on 1,630 head and a five-day rolling 
average of $79.61. Pork cutouts total 188.75 loads with 148.36 loads of pork 
cuts and 40.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $0.03, $90.86.

   ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com




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